The market was actually $8.5 trillion 18 months ago. So a lot has already happened, which is easy to forget. Since the Lugano Report the oil price has dropped from ~$90 to $38, even touching $28 on Feb 11th.
So the energy commodity (I’m not even talking utilities, refining and distribution here) has gone from contributing with 11% of global GDP (roughly $77 trillion) to 4.5%. Looking at it that way, we have global deflation of 6.5% in 18 months … No wonder central banks are printing money as much as they can to counter it. I wrote about it here:
So what is going to happen with the energy market as a whole in a LENR context. I’ve made som research on the licensees and made a map. I think I got it more or less right, but it includes som guessing due to lack of information.
Of course I realize the E-Cat will not be the only player in the long run but but right now no one else is really close. This is what the world according to LENR looks like today…
An impressive market. The areas covered by the licenses are hard to comprehend. My take is that 90% of the energy market will be replaced within 15 years and today this is covered by four (tiny) companies/groups and very few investors.
Of course this is going to take some time, and the players might change, but basically all oil, gas and coal will be replaced by LENR due to marginal cost per Joule approaching zero. Capital costs for the migration will be measured against a falling price of oil. At $10 the transition will start to slow down maybe. But with falling capital costs (my estimate is <$100 per kW) and a COP of maybe ~50 (20-80 range) it will be really hard to argue for the alternatives.