The $3.6 Trillion #Energy Market is about to Change Completely due to #LENR !

The market was actually $8.5 trillion 18 months ago. So a lot has already happened, which is easy to forget.  Since the Lugano Report the oil price has dropped from ~$90 to $38, even touching $28 on Feb 11th.

So the energy commodity (I’m not even talking utilities, refining and distribution here) has gone from contributing with 11% of global GDP (roughly $77 trillion) to 4.5%. Looking at it that way, we have global deflation of 6.5% in 18 months … No wonder central banks are printing money as much as they can to counter it. I wrote about it here:

Black Swan slides

c2c

So what is going to happen with the energy market as a whole in a LENR context. I’ve made som research on the licensees and made a map. I think I got it more or less right, but it includes som guessing due to lack of information.

Of course I realize the E-Cat will not be the only player in the long run but but right now no one else is really close. This is what the world according to LENR looks like today…

license

An impressive market. The areas covered by the licenses are hard to comprehend. My take is that 90% of the energy market will be replaced within 15 years and today this is covered by four (tiny) companies/groups and very few investors.

Of course this is going to take some time, and the players might change, but basically all oil, gas and coal will be replaced by LENR due to marginal cost per Joule approaching zero. Capital costs for the migration will be measured against a falling price of oil. At $10 the transition will start to slow down maybe. But with falling capital costs (my estimate is <$100 per kW) and a COP of maybe ~50 (20-80 range) it will be really hard to argue for the alternatives.

 

9 thoughts on “The $3.6 Trillion #Energy Market is about to Change Completely due to #LENR !

  1. Andrea Rossi made an enormous work, risking his life through his physical efforts, to bring us to this point. He merits the highest attention for what he has done.
    Thank you for this article,
    Jack

  2. Interesting article, I will propose an alternative scenario of growth of LENR.
    1. Large electrical utilities will collapse from the switch from centralized to de-centralized power generation. The cost of transmission, distribution and metering will eventually become greater than revenues as people switch out of the network. Look at how solar PV has affected profits.
    2. Big oil will begin entering LENR market but will lack flexibility of small adaptable startups. An analogy would be the internet, large legacy companies like IBM, HP etc being crushed by newcomers like Microsoft, Apple and then Google, Yahoo, Facebook.
    3. Replacing existing energy sources will be huge in the early stages of development of LENR but the real growth will come from applications that have not been developed yet. A huge market will be products to reverse global warming, removing C02, ocean trash cleanup, water desalinization, 3D printing of consumables etc
    4. My big dream is to see LENR mated with space vehicles to exploit the resources of asteroids. Finished high tech products are dropped from space, people and food go into space.

    Unlimited energy and resources will create an economy based on services and labor.

    • Hi Jon,
      Per sector analysis is required… for example, if the cost of energy becomes lower and stable, if i’m an industrial, when should I consider moving to decentralized production? For the transportation and automotive, it makes sense obviously but it will take some years to be able to produce in volume, Ff I’m a energy provider, globally around 40% of production comes from thermal power plant. What if Coal, gaz, oil are replaced by a LENR source to manage the transition? Oils companies have a problem but … half of petrol is not used for energy, and its price will grow up when LENR will replace its use in Energy… Coal is a specific case as it is used mainly for production, in China in particular… and so on :-)

      • The more expensive the energy cost the quicker it will switch over to LENR. Remote locations, islands, telecommunication, military and critical demands such as hospitals will switch over quickly. Large thermal loads like central heating for colleges, large buildings in cold climates, greenhouses. There are negligible fuel costs for a device that will provide electricity and heat safely anywhere on a distributed level. Instead of conserving energy we will build everything differently from homes, manufacturing, to transportation of all kinds will be transformed.

  3. MIT and Cal Tech and the University of Rochester, must be charged with fraudulent use of USA research funds for totally misrepresenting the very early state of science and technology of “cold fusion” with D(2) and Pt. in the period 1919-1994. Surly Department of Energy funds were paid to them for their work on the infamous DOE Cold Fusion debunking report. Some contemporaneous recorded lab data they generated was changed when the data were placed in a written report, to not show excess heat in their primitively constructed Pt cell. As leading scientists, they should have known about initiation times for reactions of all types, and the importance of surface atom energy and reactivity difference from their nearby bulk atom buddies. The cold fusion (LENR) works has been adversely effected by their self serving badmouthing of a technology baby, which would soon grow up to spank and displace their favored hot fusion , the nutty technology expended over 40 billion Federal dollars to date, and counting, yet not boiled one cup of tea for mankind to drink and share. LENR has already been used to run for one year, a commercial process in the USA all funded by private money.

    After considerable efforts, the USA patent office has removed LENR patent applications from the wastebasket containing “perpetual motion and energy” applications on which they are forbidden to spent time considering. This technology is real and really useful.

  4. “Socialism” have during 1900s often been the successor of the Islamic caliphate in many Arab countries. Financed directly or indirectly by oil money. But no more, Reports from renowned organizations like IMF claiming that Saudi Arabia will run out of money within 5 years:
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3284392/Oil-rich-Saudi-Arabia-run-financial-assets-FIVE-YEARS-warns-International-Monetary-Fund.html

    Saudi government may come to the point where the “subjects” have to pay tax and their own phone bills, unheard of.

    LENR will be a game changer not only because of the geopolitical change it will cause but also because the sheer size of the new industry. IF 1.000.000 1MW units was produced every year it will still take like 2000 years to replace oil and coal based energy. A output of 500 million 1MW unit per years will be more in line with market expectations. Basically 5 times the number of vehicles made every year.

    So, replacing old style energy have some bottlenecks.

  5. Pingback: #LENR #ECAT Saga: The Most Important Inconsistency by Dewey Weaver (so far)! | Sifferkoll®

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