Killing the Patient to Cure the Disease – follow up

By late April I made a model showing a possible exit from corona restrictions. Following up in this a six weeks later we can see that this exit has bee executed almost exactly as the model predicted using the assumptions about immunity, social distancing and protection of risk groups from my earlier post.

From the point where we are standing right now it is expected that we have about a 70-75% infection rate (or natural immunity, which is probably more usual and does not show up in tests made). We can expect the number of daily deaths to be in single digits by early to mid July.

In the graph below I have extended the thicker dotted red line with actual deaths and as can be seen are following the somewhat choppy model pretty well.

model updated with real death statistics from FHM

This outcome is predicted by a somewhat continued strict protection of the risk groups at the same time as the restrictions are eased by about 50% (mobility restriction derease) since end of April. Since this is more or less what has happened I consider the model to work ok.

I’m not surprised by the number of daily deaths not slowing down faster (as some media, or even gov entities, seems to be) Statistically there is no other feasible way to get out of this mess. We are actually doing extremely well. At least from the point we were a month ago.

In retrospect we should of course have had fewer restrictions and thereby protected us from all secondary problems we will have to live with for years to come due to BAD political decisions, mostly in other countries though. Corona will soon be the lesser problem …

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